EMIRATES: A380s into the 2040s. First Class upgrade?

Tim Clark says Emirates is sketching ideas for a new A380 first class. But until we see blueprints turn into seat maps, take it with a grain of in-flight salt. With the A380 set to fly into the 2040s, Emirates may well refresh its cabins—but don’t hold your breath for a revolutionary suite upgrade. A facelift is more likely than plastic surgery.

Emirates president announces new A380 First Clarke

Emirates President Sir Tim Clark made waves at the IATA AGM this week, announcing that the airline plans to keep its beloved Airbus A380s in service until at least 2040. That’s a win for fans (like me) of on-board showers and mile-high bars.

Clark revealed that Emirates has a new A380 first class product ‘on the drawing board.‘

Now, to temper expectations, that doesn’t mean you’ll see anything radically new this year. Or next. Or possibly this decade. The project sounds like it’s still in the early-concept stage, and that raises a few questions about whether it will ever materialise in a meaningful way.

Average lifetime of an aircraft cabin

The average lifetime for a cabin design supports the probability of a first-class cabin renewal. This depends on many things, including the airline and the premium nature of the cabin. However, if you look at averages, then the life of a First-Class cabin is somewhere between 10 and 15 years. With 15 years before 2040, that definitely warrants a First-Class refresh or redesign.

For Business Class, the average life of a cabin is something between 7 and 10 years. That would put an upgrade for the Emirates A380 business cabin in the definite column. Maybe not for Premium Economy, given that Emirates is only just implementing this class and the average life of the cabin in this class is 8 to 12 years.

Economy cabins often have the longest lives of 10 to 20 years, so other than an upgrade of covering, not much likely to be seen here.

The Current Cabin: Still Holding Its Own

Emirates’ A380 first-class cabins debuted in 2008, nearly 17 years ago. They have had some minor aesthetic changes and some tech tweaks over the years. Privacy doors have risen, and lighting has got fancier, but the basic layout remains unchanged. That’s 14 first-class suites at the front of the upper deck, plus the airlines signature showers and bar.

Those Emirates suites are popular and sell well, whether for cash or points upgrades.

A full top top-to-tail redesign unlikely

Despite the headline-grabbing talk of a new First Class, a radical redesign is unlikely. I would bet on some more tweaks along the line of its move to more neutral tones, with an adoption of some of the innovations it installed in First Class on the Boeing 777s. Why?

• Space constraints: The A380’s upper deck is narrower than the 777’s fuselage. That means the Emirates’ newer 777 First Class suites would need a major redesign.
• Return on Investment: Any overhaul with expanded space would reduce the seat count. Emirates’ current 14-seat setup is very space-efficient. Newer suites with more space means fewer seats, and less revenue per square metre.
• Retirement Timeline: Emirates plans to retire its A380s in a staged way over the next 15+ years. That’s enough time to recoup the cost of some design and tech tweaks, but not to recoup the design and development cost of of a fully redesigned and manufactured new cabin.
• Track record: The 777 First Class refresh started in 2017 has only been installed on nine aircraft. Emirates 777 retrofit program only covers new business and premium economy seats, not First Class.

Historically Emirates is more likely to give its A380s a cosmetic update—think mood lighting, upgraded IFE screens, and spruced-up soft finishes—rather than a full-blown cabin redesign.

2PAXfly Takeout

I just can’t see the business case for a full, top-to-tail First Class redesign. However, Emirates will have to balance the competitive pressure of other best-in-class competitors. With new cabins scheduled for launch in 2025 and 2026 from the likes of Qantas (Project Sunrise), Cathay Pacific (Halo Suites), British Airways and possibly Rihadh Air, we shall have to see.

Still, no one other than Etihad has those showers in the sky. So…